Trump’s Next Target

( – In a significant show of support, former President Donald Trump has established a commanding lead among likely GOP primary voters for the 2024 Republican nomination in a predominantly Democratic state.

A recent Berkeley ISG Poll/Los Angeles Times survey revealed Trump dominating in California with 66%, a significant 55-point lead over his closest competitor, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who garnered 11%. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis followed at 8%, with conservative businessman Vivek Ramaswamy at 3% and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who recently suspended his campaign, at 2%.

Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS Poll, commented to the Los Angeles Times on Trump’s strengthened position: “It’s now a different ballgame, and it certainly benefits Trump if he can follow through on these numbers. If Trump carries California, he’s a long way toward securing the nomination.” Notably, Trump’s support in California increased by 9 points since the last poll in October.

California, with its winner-take-all delegate system requiring over 50% support for a candidate to claim all 169 delegates, could be a pivotal state for Trump. The state will hold its primary on Super Tuesday, March 5, alongside Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

In a broader context, Joe Biden, while leading Trump in California, shows a narrower margin compared to the 2020 election cycle. Biden is currently ahead by 19 points in a head-to-head matchup with Trump, a decrease from his nearly 30-point lead in the last cycle. This lead further tightens to 16 points in a field with third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein.

Nationally, the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average indicates strong leads for both Trump and Biden in their respective party primaries. Trump also leads Biden in national and key battleground state polls in the RCP average.

The first nominating contest of the 2024 primary season, the Iowa caucuses, also shows Trump maintaining a significant lead with 52.5% support, followed by Haley, DeSantis, Ramaswamy, and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson.

The Berkeley ISG Poll/Los Angeles Times conducted the survey from January 4 to January 8, sampling 1,351 likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5%. The overall poll included 4,470 likely voters in California, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2%. As of the time of the report, Trump’s campaign had not responded to media inquiries for comment.