(TheProudRepublic.com) – The stakes are sky-high for next week’s debate between GOP nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris, as the Democrat has been given a shocking 55% chance of winning the election.
Scott Tranter of Decision Desk HQ said, “I would put this debate as high as stakes as the one we saw” between Joe Biden and Trump.
Decision Desk HQ’s poll model gives Harris a 55% chance of winning, but the race is still a toss-up, with seven key states in play for both campaigns.
Tranter pointed out that the debate might influence the numbers, especially since early voting is about to start in some states.
While there are slight differences in other models—Nate Silver’s, for instance, gives Trump a 60% chance—the race remains close, with both candidates having a realistic shot at victory.
At first glance, the 10-point gap between Decision Desk HQ’s and Silver’s models might seem significant. Silver’s model even shows Trump’s chances ticking up in recent days. But both models underline how tight the race is.
“Statistically speaking Silver’s model is not an ‘outlier’ — to the general public we can understand how they might view his model as markedly different — in reality he is giving an ever-so-slight edge to Trump where we are giving an ever-so-slight edge to Harris,” Tranter explained.
Nate Silver’s model mentioned that some post-Labor Day polls have looked decent for Harris and will be adjusted less in the model for the convention bounce compared to the past few weeks.
Harris leads Trump in the national average from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ by about 4 points, but her leads are smaller, or she is tied, in each of the seven key swing states.
In addition, this century has seen close elections decided by a handful of states, often by slim margins. The biggest win in this era was in 2008 when Barack Obama beat John McCain by about 7 points.
In general, polling bounces from conventions have been smaller this century compared to late 20th-century elections. According to Silver, Trump and Biden saw minimal bumps after their conventions in 2020.
Tranter suggested that Harris’s bump might have come in late July and early August, right after she entered the race. Those few weeks helped her close Biden’s significant gap nationally and in key states, making the race competitive again.
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