Can Trump Really Defeat Biden In 2024?

Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 3.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

On Monday (October 17), a New York Times-Sienna Poll revealed former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden by one percentage point in a hypothetical 2024 rematch.

Trump received 45 percent support compared to Biden’s 44 percent. The figures show the split between likely voters when asked who they would support if the 2024 election was held today.

The New York Times-Sienna Poll isn’t an anomaly. In most hypothetical 2024 match-ups with challengers that include Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, and Independent Senator Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.), the poll finds Trump to be in the lead.

Yet, other polls aren’t as favorable toward Trump. Instead, these polls place Trump on the backfoot of Biden.

One example is a September Yahoo News-You Gov poll, which has Biden leading Trump by a much higher margin: six percentage points.

Biden also seems confident that he’ll beat Trump in a rematch, telling CNN’s Jake Tapper in an interview last week that he can “beat Donald Trump again.”

The confidence could stem from polls, but it’s likely based on Biden’s 2020 performance against Trump.

In 2020, Biden defeated Trump with a record number of votes, and, it’s anyone’s guess whether he can do it again in 2024 when he’ll be 82.

Yet, the rematch seems like an inevitable scenario as both men flirt with announcing their decisions to run in 2024.

Biden will likely be the Democrats’ nominee, but Trump may not hold that title as the former President deals with multiple highly publicized investigations.